Monday, 28 September 2009

A Huge Step Backwards

My latest month has just closed and it was basically a disaster will a loss of £541.76. What went wrong? Well this month I mixed up my trading with some laying and it didn't go well. Maybe you shouldn't do both, but as I was struggling with the trading side and my 6 month deadline is approaching, I tried laying books at varying times to the off and invariably the books proved very unprofitable as often the winner was backed. I also tried some trend betting / laying on the football, but this too, just added to the losses. Add letting a horse go in play that cost me £128.14 and all in all we have a mess.

So what now? Well. I did say that I would seriously re-evaluate after 6 months, and the signs to be honest are not good. I've made just one profit in 5 months, and although you could say that the first two months were very amateurist, the fact that I have moved from a month four gain into a month five loss is disconcerting. I've tried numerous strategies over the last five months, but only 2, possibly 3 seem to produce a fairly consistent positive return, though these returns are small. Increase the stakes on these? Well it seems an obvious solution, but I'm still unsure if it would produce a livable amount, though I will continue with these strategies this month.

What I do feel I'm lacking at the moment is confidence, because after a few 'bad' trades, I tend to find myself watching the ladders, being pensive about entering, and waiting for a clear signal, but then I generally find that by the time I think I've identified something 'definite', the move is either already over or the race is about to jump. Joys of trading eh?

Anyway, that was then, this is now, so onwards and upwards Ostlers, you have one month left to prove that you can do this. Let the battle commence! - hey, that was positive wasn't it! :-)

Tuesday, 1 September 2009

Treading Water

A long time since my last post and all I've been doing is beavering away trying to find ways to turn a consistent profit, and 18 weeks in, the lodge is far from finished. I've found that purely trading is not for me, I'm just not turning a regular profit. I've tried scalping & swing trading based on all sorts of technical analysis, I've tried following the herd and going against the herd and trying to catch the momentum change, I've reacted to commentators news as to horses sweating, playing up etc, and yet still I have not managed to turn a profit consistently. Accepted, I am miles forward from where I started, the discipline is so much better and the days of huge losses on races by going in play are well behind me (I hope), but still, progress is slower than I anticipated. So for the last three weeks, I've tried a different tact and brought in other sports and as well as trading I have backed and laid with mixed results. All the lays have been done based on a wealth of information provided to me by a guy who I consider to be the most knowledgeable guy I know on horseracing but this too in the early days has not reaped anything, and the backs / trades on tennis, rugby and football have been done based on my own research, and even though as yet, the profits elude me. I will continue to run with it for a few more weeks.

I need to try these different approaches as time is marching on. This is a 26 week plan I'm on and 18 weeks have now gone by. If, at the end of the 6 months, no profits are forthcoming, then I will need to call it a day financially, so at the moment, I am trying to branch out and reap small profits from many avenues, rather than rely purely on trading, as I believe that if I just stay with pre-race trading on horses, then failure is inevitable.
Downbeat? I don't think so. People say that good trading comes with confidence, well for me, it's not that I lack confidence, I'm just a realist who knows his limitations on trading. Who knows, the new strategies may work. They wont fail through lack of effort and the amount of spreadsheets I have continues to grow because I do record every avenues results, hoping that if I try a dozen, then although many of them will be dead ends, maybe one or two will turn the consistent small profit that I am looking for, be it backs lays or trades. I'll let you know.

Oh, nearly forgot. One big positive. Month 4 - My first profit - Marvellous!